COVID-19 third wave in India soon? Top scientists say this as Omicron cases rise

Amid rising Omicron cases in India, two scientists have predicted that a mild new COVID-19 wave is expected to hit India in February 2022.

The prediction has been made by Manindra Agrawal of IIT Kanpur and M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad. It is to be noted that these two scientists have developed the Sutra model of tracking COVID-19 trajectory in India.

Talking to India Today, Manindra and Vidyasagar said that in the “worst case scenario”, daily new COVID-19 cases in India may hit the range of 1.5 to 1.8 lakhs in February.

If we take into account the situation in South Africa, which first reported Omicron variant, then the spread of Omicron will be fast in India too but the fall from the peak will also be rapid. According to Manindra, the number of Omicron cases touhced its peak in three weeks and the number of cases has already started declining.

Meanwhile, the number of Omicron cases is rapidly increasing in the US too. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the US publishes projection of cases, deaths and hospitalisations on a weekly basis.

The CDC observes that “current increases in Omicron cases are likely to lead to a national surge in the coming weeks with peak daily numbers of new infections that could exceed previous peaks; these scenarios may be realized as soon as January”.

“In scenarios with lower immune evasion, a surge is still likely, but the peak could be lower and begin as late as April 2022. Projected large surges in cases indicate surges of hospital demand even if severity is reduced, because of the large number of anticipated cases occurring in a short period of time,” the report added.