Governments across globe faced backlash in 2024. One exception: Narendra Modi

Governments worldwide, both left- and right-leaning, regardless of their tenure, have faced strong opposition from dissatisfied voters this year, which has been termed the “super year” for elections.

Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election added to a series of setbacks for incumbent parties in 2024, with elections held in around 70 countries, representing nearly half of the world’s population.

Voter discontent has been caused by various issues, but a common factor is the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. People and businesses are struggling to recover, facing high prices, tight government budgets, and a rise in migration.

“There’s an overall sense of frustration with political elites, viewing them as out of touch, that cuts across ideological lines,” news agency Associated Press quoted Richard Wike, director of global attitudes research at the Pew Research Center as saying.

He added that a Pew poll across 24 countries, which revealed that the appeal of democracy is declining as voters face growing economic hardship and feel that no political group truly represents their interests.

Are Western democracies facing a crisis?

Since the pandemic began in 2020, incumbents have lost office in 40 out of 54 elections in Western democracies, highlighting a significant “incumbent disadvantage,” according to Steven Levitsky, a political scientist at Harvard University.

In the UK, the Conservatives experienced their worst result since 1832 in July’s election, which saw the center-left Labour Party return to power after 14 years.

Meanwhile, just across the English Channel, the far right made major gains, challenging the ruling parties in France and Germany during June’s European Parliament elections, affecting the EU’s largest and most powerful members.

The results prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to call a parliamentary election, aiming to curb the rise of the far-right in France.

The anti-immigration National Rally party secured the most votes in the first round, but strategic alliances and tactical voting led to a third-place finish in the second round. This outcome resulted in a fragile government overseeing a divided legislature.

Is voter discontent shifting power in Asia?

In Asia, South Korea’s liberal opposition parties led by the Democratic Party, triumphed over the ruling conservative People Power Party in April’s parliamentary elections.

In India, despite expectations of a landslide victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faced a setback in June. Voters turned away from the BJP, resulting in the loss of its parliamentary majority, though the party remained in power with support from allies.

Similarly, in Japan, the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been in power since 1955, faced a strong rebuke from voters in October’s elections.

Anti-incumbent sentiment rises in Africa, Mexico stands out

In Africa, the trend of incumbents facing voter backlash is evident, especially in countries with strong democratic institutions. South Africa, Senegal, and Botswana saw either government coalitions or changes in leadership, with Botswana’s ruling party losing power after 58 years.

However, some nations with authoritarian leaders, like Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, continued to secure overwhelming victories. According to Alex Vines from Chatham House, voters, particularly in younger generations, are increasingly focused on issues like the cost of living, with less memory of decolonization and apartheid.

In Latin America, Mexico stood out as an exception. Despite the global trend, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s handpicked successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, easily won the presidential election in June. Voters in Mexico also showed higher levels of satisfaction with the economic situation.