Sensex Crashes Over 320 Points As Global Recession Concerns Linger

Indian equity benchmarks fell in early trade on Tuesday, tracking mostly lower Asian markets on worries about a global recession and an increase in COVID-19 infections in China, which have tempered hope for easing stringent pandemic restrictions.

The BSE Sensex index fell 326.51 points to 61,479.68 in early trade, and the broader NSE Nifty opened in the red.

“Markets may continue to witness choppy trend in intra-day trades and are likely to drift lower in early Tuesday trades, tracking the overnight fall in key US indices. Investors continue to fret over the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance that could tip the world’s largest economy into recession next year,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President for Research at Mehta Equities.

“However, the major catalyst for investors would be the recent RBI monetary policy meeting’s minutes which are expected to be wired on Wednesday. This would provide some indication to traders on what holds for the markets in the medium term with regards to interest rates, inflation & economy,” he added.

After three years of COVID-19 lockdowns, China is accelerating the removal of restrictions, leaving investors to wonder how the financial markets would respond to the reopening.

“The positive reaction to the reopening is starting to give way to the realisation that it’s going to be a lumpy path for China to get there,” JP Morgan Asset Management’s Global Market Strategist Kerry Craig told Reuters.

“Once they do reopen, there will be positive sentiment and China will become a growth story for the world again.”

Apart from China’s reopening, investors also broadly predict the possibility that US interest rates will increase more than anticipated in 2023.

William Dudley, a former Federal Reserve official, said on Monday it was likely that rates might rise even as US unemployment began to inch up.

“We might not get much of a Santa Claus stock market rally as Wall Street rushes to price in credit and earnings risks,” OANDA analsyt Edward Moya wrote.

The S&P 500, the Dow, and the Nasdaq are on pace to post their greatest yearly percentage losses since the lowest point of the global financial crisis in 2008.