What swung the vote in favour of JMM-led alliance in Jharkhand

Since it was formed in 2000, the mineral-rich state of Jharkhand has been riven by multiple fault lines. But none were as prominent as the social one between the tribal communities, which form a little over a fourth of the state’s population, and non-tribal communities.

The tension between these two large umbrella groups created an instability that ensured that no government could complete a five-year term and return to power. They were also spatially segregated — the tribespeople largely in the Santhal Parganas and Kolhan regions, and the non-tribal communities in the North Chhotanagpur region, also home to the coal mining and industrial corridor spread across the Dhanbad-Bokaro-Hazaribag belt.

Going into the Jharkhand polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had a simple plan — limit the JMM-led alliance to the tribal-dominated regions, arrest Soren’s appeal among non-Santhal tribes (the chief minister belongs to the largest tribal community, the Santhals), and maximise its catchment among the non-tribal regions of the state. In a state where the mandate has been historically fragmented, the party had reason to believe this was a winning strategy, especially after the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won all eight non-reserved Lok Sabha constituencies in this summer’s general elections. It had a reasonable belief that the tribal-non-tribal fault line could lend itself to communal polarisation.

It did not work.

Not only did the JMM-led alliance win the elections with a mandate higher than its tally in 2019, it also made Hemant Soren the first chief minister of the state to complete a full term (he was out of the saddle for about five months due to his imprisonment over corruption charges) and then retain power. More importantly, the JMM-led alliance’s commanding performance erased some of the historic differences between tribal and non-tribal seats, helping the INDIA bloc post victories across the board.

How did it happen?

The BJP ran an aggressive campaign focussed on alleged infiltration by outsiders and Bangladeshis into Jharkhand. The party released a television ad and told rally after rally that these outsiders were aimed at making indigenous communities homeless in Jharkhand, and that the JMM-led government was helping these outsiders to corner reservation benefits. The strategy was aimed at driving a wedge between the tribal and Muslim vote banks — two crucial bases of the JMM-led alliance.

In response, the JMM didn’t engage directly with the allegation but only said that the protection of borders was the prerogative of the central government. Every time a senior BJP leader spoke about infiltration, the JMM sought to switch the conversation to Hemant Soren’s imprisonment and the treatment of a tribal man at the hands of the central government — a pitch it was relatively more confident about. In the battle between aggression and sympathy, the latter eventually won.

Throughout the campaign, Soren was careful to keep the focus on himself and asked the BJP repeatedly who its chief ministerial candidate was. The BJP dithered on its answer even as many people expected Babulal Marandi, a former chief minister and the state unit chief, to step up if the party performed well. For some time, it appeared that Champai Soren, Hemant’s former lieutenant who became CM in his stead and then left the JMM after feeling sidelined, could fill the void. But the Kolhan Tiger didn’t have a pan-state appeal, and his influence was largely limited to his seat of Saraikela.

A final blow to the BJP’s campaign came from an unexpected quarter — via a 29-year-old man with short-cropped hair and an aggressive tone. Whenever Jairam Mahto would go on the campaign trail, standing atop a car as two underlings grasped hold of a leg each, frenzied crowds would follow with loudspeakers blaring the slogans: “Dekho Dekho Kaun Aaya, Tiger Aaya, Tiger Aaya” (See, the Tiger has arrived) and “Jairam Mahto Zindabad” (Long Live Jairam Mahto).

Mahto’s youthful pitch to the Kudmi community, focussing on self-respect, jobs, and economic security struck a chord in the impoverished mining belt. On Saturday, Mahto posted an emphatic victory from the JMM stronghold of Dumri, defeating sitting minister Bebi Devi. More importantly, candidates put up by his Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha played spoiler on 14 seats, ensuring the defeat of candidates from the BJP and its ally All Jharkhand Students Union in at least 11 seats. Mahto’s appeal damaged the BJP’s plans among its erstwhile loyal Kudmi-Mahto base and hurt the BJP’s chances among non-tribals. The tribal-non-tribal fault line had been bridged to an extent, but not in the way the BJP had intended.